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Archive for Mark McEachran

Audience Forecasting and Campaign Pacing

Audience Forecasting and Campaign Pacing“In online advertising, how can I predict/forecast the traffic (number of requests) for a day ?
For a given day, I would like to get the estimated number of eligible impressions a campaign will have, in order to allocate my budget and implement a traffic based pacing algorithm.”
This question was asked on Quora, below is my answer.

The estimated number of eligible impressions, or audience forecasting or “avails” as they say in the industry, can be derived in several ways. I will illustrate two of the methods.

The long, but easy method

The easiest way to estimate your avails would be to just take a whole day’s worth of data and determine how many of your target users are in there. The problem with this method is that it can take a whole day. If you have a day to spare, this is a good way to go.

The short, but difficult method

For this to work you’ll need the total traffic available for some previous day, or week. You’ll want that data broken down by hour or maybe 15 minute interval. With more traffic, your breakdown can be smaller. For the sake of this example let’s look at an hourly breakdown and a single day’s worth of data. Read more

Disrupting the Bid in the RTB Auction

RTB Bid Keys

Your eyeballs are on the block, but they don’t always go to the highest bidder.

“In RTB, will the bid with the highest CPM always win? If not, what are the other factors?”

This question was asked on quora, below is my answer.

In a pure auction, the highest bid should always win. In many cases an RTB auction ends with this result, but not always. There are two or three things that will adjust the auction mechanics to give a lower bidder the impression. Most of the time a modified auction is at the behest of the publisher. Read more

Gun debate – do we draw a new line?

In light of the California, Oregon, Colorado and other killings this year, as well as the upcoming presidential election, the gun issue is top of mind for me and many others.

I have to admit – I am on the fence about it. And I read social media posts from both sides. I’ve got friends posting as strong 2nd amendment supporters, and other friends posting for more gun control.

Gun on US Constitution - Right To Keep and Bear Arms

Pro gun control

I hear that once a day, on average, we have a mass shooting in this country. Not a gang-banger, not a cop taking down a suspect, but a mass shooting. They don’t always make the news, but apparently it happens – it’s kind of amazing really. The reasons are usually varied – lonely, angry young man shoots up a school, another man watching too much TV without the self-awareness to process it shoots up a health clinic, and an angry coworker planning an execution with his wife. It’s always a person pulling the trigger, but it’s always a big, bad gun as the weapon of choice.

Bullshit

Some of the 2nd amendment folks like to cite the fictitious scenario where a home invader is deterred or dispatched by a gun wielding homeowner. This argument only works in the echo chamber. Too much research has been show that the guns in the home are more likely to be used in domestic violence than fending off a burglar.

Pro-2nd

On the other side we have things going on like the Oath Keepers defending a miner’s rights from government overreach with a legal show of force up in Oregon. Vice news has a very interesting story on it. While the 2nd amendment doesn’t refer to protecting citizens from government overreach, I see the logic in this application of the law.

Genie’s out

Gun sales are going up and to the right. It’s great news for gun makers. I would imagine that they will be placing some heavy bets on republican candidates. They don’t need their horse to win the race, they just need to keep fear about “Obama taking your guns away” going so that sales continue to surge. I think a lot of people are buying the guns because they figure that sales of the good ones are going to be restricted soon.

A bit of soap box

because I’m mostly a bleeding heart

I’ll be honest, one of the deterrents of coming out on the 2nd amendment side of this argument is getting lumped in with some of the gun nuts. It’s amazing, especially during a political season, how often they throw in pro-gun comments on seemingly heartfelt, sometimes tear jerking threads. IMO – inappropes. They don’t end up convincing anyone – They’re talking amongst themselves. They also don’t do their argument any favors.

Weapons

The crux of this argument, for me, is whether or not assault rifles are restricted. In much the same way you aren’t allowed to buy a surface-to-air missile, you wouldn’t be able to buy or own an assault rifle. The anticipated result would be fewer fatalities since a shooter would not be able to shoot as quickly, and fewer incidents since a would-be shooter wouldn’t be as interested in killing if he or she can’t kill a lot of people quickly.

The gun dance

I’ve been trying to dance around a pro-control stance by looking for commonalities amongst the shooters that point, collectively, to some other societal problem that we can address without restricting guns. The three killings I’ve cited here all seem to have drastically different circumstances. The primary commonality is guns.

So – I have no quippy image to post to express my opinion, no quote from a founding father and still no side on the debate. But there’s the debate… for me.

Whisky doesn’t have bubbles

Whisky DramWhisky doesn’t have bubbles. Beer has them, so does champagne. Whisky doesn’t. It just sits there in the glass, unassuming. It looks like apple juice. A sharp nose can sense that it’s actually whisky. Fruit flies know the difference, although sometimes they don’t care. They end up in the glass anyway. As the joke goes you’re supposed to fish them from the dram and exclaim, “Spit it out, you!”

The smell of the whisky reveals its origin, its age, its source materials. Is it corn, rye, barley, wheat, or something else? The nose will tell you. Is it from the Spey, the Highlands, the Lowlands, the islands, or the Orient? You can’t hide the smell of peat, the sweetness of the glen, the salt, the heather, or the rain. Did the angels soften what heads remained? How much time did they have to soften them? Smell it. All the answers are there in the smell.

The barrels are in the taste. Bourbon’s sugar and hints of corn rub off on most. Fine oaks turned out to be not so fine enough to stay popular. Sherrys and reds are the highlights of the day, finishing many a batch. The malts taste fine in their homoganie. The color, as meaningless as it is, looks as honey in the light. Blame the wine, also, for that.

Fanciful thoughts would credit the still for the finish, and why not. The tasters spend enough time discerning the heads, hearts and tails from the contraptions that there ought to be some contribution to the flavor. There’s a romantic mystery hiding in the still. Aging copper, shapes, sizes and imperfections may all leave subtle marks on water of life. How does it tickle the tongue? Where does the fire start down the throat? How warm does it make the belly?

In every dram of whisky is the story of water and grain transforming into smells, tastes and sensations. Yet it’s an unassuming liquid that doesn’t doesn’t make a lot of fuss. It just sits there in the glass, without bubbles.

Scotland – 5 Things I learned

I recently visited my ancestral homeland on holiday. It was the second leg of our trip, which also included Paris. My wife and I had beautiful weather (for Scotland) and spent a lot of time on the busy streets of Glasgow and Edinburgh. We also took a bus tour of the highlands, Loch Ness, and Glencoe.

1. Scots don’t know how to spell McEachran.

Some do, but most don’t. It’s as rare a name there as it is here in the States. There’s at least one semi-famous soccer (football) player with the name, but he’s playing for an English team.

Josh McEachran

Josh McEachran in October 2010, receiving advice from former Chelsea assistant manager (and guy with enormous head) Ray Wilkins

2. A lot of Scotland’s locals prefer Jack Daniels.

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